A new study by Arizona State University, after tracking 29,754 companies from 1926 through 2025, finds that nearly all U.S. stocks have failed to build lasting wealth over the past century.
Only 1,082 of those companies, about 3.7%, achieved all of the net market gains. All other stocks, on average, did no better than owning Treasuries. These bills are short-term government loans, and are among the safest places to keep cash.
Most US stocks lagged Treasuries
the paperOne Hundred Years in US Stock Markets uses the University of Chicago’s CRSP database. He – she Thoseerupee All stocks listed on the NYSE, American Stock Exchange and NASDAQ since 1926.
Its author, finance professor Hendrik Bessembinder, has updated his landmark 2018 study on the same question. This earlier work showed for the first time how a small number of stocks drive the entire market.
A century of data shows that nearly 60% of stocks left investors worse off than safe-haven Treasuries. Only about 41% were able to overcome them.
Averages are misleading. The middle or average stock lost 6.9% over its life. The overall average exceeded 30,000%, supported by a few giant winners.
The same imbalance is emerging today, with gains led by fewer companies, a pattern analysts call “shortcomings.” Narrow market breadth.
Few Giants created wins
Five companies have created more than a fifth of total stock market wealth since 1926. Apple leads with $5.02 trillion, about 5.5% of the total. Followed by Nvidia with $4.58 trillion.
Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon ranked in the top five. They all belong to the Great Seventhe small group of big technology stocks that now dominate the market. These seven created 24.2% of the century’s wealth, fueling it Warnings of a major technology bubble In 2026.
The timing shows how quickly this will happen. Nvidia only went public in 1999, yet it and Apple now own about 10% of the total wealth ever created. This trend helps explain why Semiconductor stocks outperformed Big tech companies and cryptocurrencies this year.
“People keep saying the S&P is being run by a handful of AI stocks, as if that’s something new. It’s not. The market has always run on a small number of winners. What’s changed is that there are fewer of them now,” says analyst Paul Theory. Notice.
Even the smallest market Nvidia Suppliers Stock Join the rally.
Market concentration is accelerating
Focus is quickly tightened. Using data up to 2016, the 2018 study found that 89 companies accounted for half of net worth.
Nine years later, there were only 46 companies, making up half. During the same period, total wealth swelled to $91 trillion from $43 trillion. The winners’ circle shrank as the prize more than doubled.
Those nine years roughly correspond to the rise of big tech companies and the AI boom. This overlap increases the risks of any of them Looming stock sell-off In the few market leaders.
Besembinder’s message has endured for three decades. There are few stocks that carry the entire market, which he says favors broad index funds over picking individual winners.
The working paper has not yet been peer-reviewed.
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