TThe tanker market is witnessing a “violent” shift in cargo flows in recent memory. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Exclusive said: “The crude oil tanker market in 2026 saw one of the most violent shifts in earnings in recent memory, not because of expanding demand but because of physical disruption to the world’s most important oil hotspot. The first four months of the year tell two sharply different stories: a pre-conflict period defined by strong demand and steadily rising shipping, and a conflict-period collapse in seaborne crude volumes that ironically pushed tanker profits to record highs.” Historically extreme, demonstrating, with unusual clarity, the degree to which actual tonnage supply rather than freight volumes govern short-term rate outcomes.
Source: Exclusive
According to Xclusiv, “During January and February, seaborne crude oil flows were on a building trajectory. January 2026 reached 1,389 million barrels, up 3.2% year-over-year versus January 2025’s 1,345 million barrels, while February rose to 1,332 million barrels, up 6.0% compared to February 2025’s 1,256 million barrels. These were the strongest and Comparable readings for two months since 2023, and reflected a real improvement in global crude oil trade dynamics, have already begun pricing TCEs for Baltic Exchange tankers in a tighter environment: VLCC rates averaged $78,512 per day in January 2026, double the average of $38,136 per day in January 2025, while Suezmax vessel rates averaged $88,445 per day vs. $25,556 per day, Aframax $67,957 per day versus $25,612 per day the previous year The escalation of hostilities between the US and Iran fundamentally changed the market from March onwards, as seaborne crude oil volumes contracted sharply: March 2026 reached 1,253 million barrels, down 13.2% year-on-year versus 1,443 million barrels in March. 2025, while April fell further by 1,244 million barrels, an 8.9% contraction and the four-month crude oil total for 2026 is 5,218 million barrels, down 3.6% from 5,411 million barrels in the same period in 2025, and broadly erasing the additional gains accumulated since 2023. The actual restricted status of the strait is translated directly into the shipping data: barrels that. It should have been shipped and there were no movements, and the volumes confirmed what the maritime security warnings had already indicated.
“However, the shipping market response has been unprecedented in modern tanker history. VLCC earnings rose to a monthly average of US$242,917 per day in March 2026, an increase of 483% compared to March 2025’s US$41,633 per day, before declining only marginally to US$223,430 per day in April and remaining at elevated levels until May at US$215,881 per day Suezmax rates reached an average monthly level of US$204,822 in March (+329% year-on-year), while Aframax recorded US$140,398 per day, a 345% advance. The mechanisms are well understood: restricted transportation, tonnage withdrawal due to war risks, and paralysis of the insurance market reduce the effective supply of ships more sharply than falling cargo volumes, resulting in significant profits. For operators who maintain active exposure.
Source: Exclusive
“The divergence between physical cargo flows and freight rate dynamics epitomizes the structural tension now defining the crude oil tanker market,” the shipbroker concluded. “May 2026 data is already showing some moderation from the March peaks, suggesting that markets are beginning to price in a degree of normalization. Whether this normalization becomes a sustained rebalancing or merely a temporary pause before the next escalation remains the determining variable for positioning crude oil tankers over the remainder of the year, and the answer will be shaped less by shipping fundamentals rather than a diplomatic and military path.” A conflict whose consequences were truly extraordinary.
Nikos Rousanoglou, Global Hellenic Shipping News
