Bitcoin is trading at around $74.7K, holding near its highest levels since the February crash, as the recovery momentum built over the past two weeks continues to develop.
This move is encouraging, but Bitcoin now stands at one of the most important technical junctures of the entire correction, near the confluence of the upper border of the descending channel and the 100-day moving average, the two levels that have defined the bearish structure for several months.
Bitcoin price analysis: daily chart
For the first time in this correction cycle, Bitcoin appears to be pressing a real breakout attempt above the descending channel, with the price now breaking above the upper boundary near $74K-$75K along with the 100-day moving average falling nearby. The RSI also rose to the high 60s, the strongest daily momentum reading since before the February crash, and lends some credibility to the attempt, while also not showing signs of overbought.
Whether this is a certain breakout or another failure depends on how the price behaves over the next few daily closes. A sustained close above the channel and the $75K-$80K resistance band would be a structural shift of real significance, and would open the way towards $88K-$90K, where the 200-day moving average awaits. On the downside, $60k-$62k is the key support that buyers must defend at all costs if the breakout fails.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin continues to trade within the moderate upward channel that has been in place since the February lows. The price has now risen above the midline and is trying to break through the $74-76K resistance area. The 4-hours RSI is also hovering near 60 levels, leaving room for further push without the immediate threat of an RSI rejection like those seen in previous attempts.
A clean break above $76K with the RSI holding above 60 would be a compelling bullish signal in the short term and could accelerate the trend towards the $80K to $82K region. If the asset stops and pulls back from here, the recent bottom near $71k is the first support to watch, followed by the channel bottom at $67k.
On-chain analysis
Bitcoin exchange reserves have fallen to approximately 2.68 million BTC. It is at the lowest level in the entire data set, extending into mid-2023, a significant decline from the peak of 3.2 million BTC seen in early 2024. The drawdown has been sharp and consistent, accelerating through the second half of 2025 and continuing even as the price corrected sharply from the $125,000 peak.
It is difficult to overstate the importance of this reading. With fewer bitcoins on exchanges than at any time in modern history, the immediately available sell-side supply is structurally weaker than it has been for the past three years, including periods when bitcoin traded at much lower prices. In a scenario where demand returns strongly, the lack of supply on the side of the exchange can significantly amplify upward price movements.
The setup mirrors the conditions seen prior to previous recoveries, where a tightening supply base combined with improving sentiment created the conditions for large-scale moves. The key missing element, as always, is sustainable demand. But the foundation being built on-chain is among the most constructive in years.
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