Trump’s quantum push is getting praise, but experts warn that Bitcoin isn’t ready

President Donald Trump’s executive orders to accelerate the federal government’s transition to post-quantum cryptography by 2031 are drawing support and criticism from researchers who say Washington is adjusting its plans to fit the rapidly changing quantum landscape.

the Executive orders Trump on Monday signed a move to move the federal deadline for post-quantum cryptography adoption from 2035 to 2031, and it comes as governments, technology companies and cryptocurrency developers increase efforts to prepare for future quantum threats.

“It’s difficult to predict a specific date for a cryptographically relevant quantum computer because there are still a lot of unknowns, but anywhere from three to ten years is reasonable,” said Dr. Stefan Leichenauer, Vice President of Engineering and Principal Scientist at SandboxAQ. Decryption. “The important thing is that the consequences of (a cryptographic-related quantum computer) will be so dramatic that we need to prepare for even the most aggressive predictions.”

At the same time, he warned that organizations may already be behind schedule in their efforts to move to post-quantum cryptography.

“We are moving quickly in the (post-quantum computing) migration space, but given the long migration times for many systems, we are likely already behind schedule,” Leichenauer said. “The (post-quantum computing) migration is a multi-year process, and a (cryptography-related quantum computer) will likely emerge before we are finished.”

He added that the executive orders should serve as a “wake-up call,” calling quantum security an urgent priority.

According to Alex Broden, CEO of Quantum Security Project elevenThe White House’s revised timeline has been delayed.

“There has been a lot of rumblings about progress in quantum computing, and other countries have updated their timelines, most recently FranceBroden said Decryption. “When this came out, I think my reaction was well, ‘It’s about time.’”

Broden said the 2028 target was ambitious but no longer implausible. Project Eleven estimates there is a 50% chance of a crypto-related quantum computer by 2033, and a 10% chance by 2030.

“I think if you asked me this question two years ago, I would have said there was a 0% chance,” Broden said. “Now I think there is a financial opportunity.”

Paul Stemmers, Partner Netherlands and Fayette And the Executive Director of Quantum Industry AllianceHe said the executive orders reflect a growing consensus that Timetable For the quantum computer relevant to cryptography is shrinking.

“The quantum industry roadmaps are starting to converge around the 2028-2030 time frame,” Stemmers said. Decryption. But he cautioned that the general estimates may not include secret quantum computing programs in the United States or abroad.

He also noted the more pressing concern that adversaries are already collecting encrypted data in anticipation of future decryption capabilities.

“Because adversaries are already stealing encrypted data and holding it until they can decrypt it using a cryptographically relevant quantum computer, the threat is immediate and the time to address it is now,” he said. “The transition to post-quantum cryptography and rapid cybersecurity takes time. The Cybersecurity (Executive Order) balances urgency with realism.”

Alliance members responded positively to the executive orders, Stemmers said, noting their focus on manufacturing, marketing, publishing and industry engagement along with research. He also described the administration’s roadmap for post-quantum cybersecurity as ambitious but achievable.

Not everyone viewed the executive orders as a sign that the government was overcoming the problem. Some critics on social media Argue The urgent need for post-quantum cryptography is long overdue, because sensitive data is already being collected and stored with the expectation that future quantum computers will eventually be able to decrypt it.

Others, including a quantum physicist Anastasia MarchenkovaManagement messaging about “quantitative dominance” helps raise awareness and attract investment, but may also create unrealistic expectations about how quickly the industry can achieve practical results, he said.

“Bringing ‘quantity’ into the national conversation really helps — budget, interest, new talent in the pipeline — that’s what moves us from research to commercialization and builds real businesses,” Marchenkova said. Decryption. “But preparation is boring and unattractive: agility, migration, actually shipping defense, not just exaggerating the crime of breaking encryption or building a quantum computer,” she said.

“If the deadlines pass — and some will — the steampunk audience will get louder,” she added. “Now that quantitative companies are public, these announcements are moving the market significantly, although we are unsure of the long-term effects.”

Despite this concern, Marchenkova said there is nothing fatally wrong with the executive orders.

“‘The how’ is what’s missing,” she said. “We now have many unified post-quantum algorithms and real confusion about which ones we should use where, and which ones are better. It says ‘migration,’ not ‘here’s how to choose.’”

Christopher Tam, President and Chief Innovation Officer at BTQ TechnologiesHe said the administration’s 2031 deadline for federal agencies to migrate high-value assets to post-quantum cryptography is still too slow given the pace of industry efforts and the potential risks posed by quantum computing.

“I would have made it more urgent,” Tam said. DecryptionNoting that companies, including Google, have already identified 2029 Post-quantum migration goals. “It seems strange for the federal government to lag behind the industry for two years.”

Tam also questioned the narrow scope of the system, arguing that it focuses primarily on federal regulations while leaving much of the financial sector and broader industrial base outside its direct reach.

At the same time, he said the administration deserves praise for combining quantum computing and cybersecurity initiatives into separate but related executive orders.

“If quantum computing research and development progresses successfully, it carries with it the burden or risk of quantum cryptography attacks,” Tam said. “And that’s the real reason we’ve seen these two executive orders go hand in hand.”

However, for cryptocurrencies, Tam said the challenge is more complex. While regulators can influence banks and other financial institutions, decentralized networks e.g Bitcoin It cannot be directed through executive action.

“You can’t issue an executive order on Bitcoin,” he said. “There’s no one who’s going to respond to that.”

Bitcoin has a coordination problem

The executive orders arrive as the cryptocurrency industry considers how to transition to quantum-resistant security.

In March, BTQ Technologies Fired Bitcoin test network based on BIP-360 quantum resistance proposal. In April, the developers published Pep-361a proposal that would freeze bitcoins held at vulnerable legacy addresses if owners fail to move to quantum-resistant alternatives, while the developers behind other networks such as excellent and Algorand Published roadmaps for adopting quantum-resistant cryptography.

Broden said awareness of the issue has increased dramatically over the past year, but progress toward implementing solutions remains limited because, unlike many blockchain networks, Bitcoin has no institution or governing body capable of directing migration efforts. As a result, any transformation requires coordination between developers, miners, exchanges, custodians, and major shareholders.

“Awareness in people’s minds is actually where it needs to be,” Broden said. “Now there is a question about what is being done.”