The USD/CHF pair resumed its decline from 0.8041 last week. The initial bias remains to the downside this week. A strong breakout of the 61.8% forecast at 0.8041 to 0.7774 from 0.7923 at 0.7758 would target the 100% forecast at 0.7656. On the upside, minor resistance above 0.7808 would shift the intraday bias back to neutral first.
In the bigger picture, as long as the 55 W EMA (now at 0.8051) holds, the decline from 0.9200 is expected to continue, as part of a larger downtrend. A strong break at 0.7603 would target a 100% forecast at 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.7382.
In the longer term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) is seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade downtrend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It is uncertain whether the drop from 1.0342 is the second stop of the pattern, or a resumption of the downtrend. But in both cases, the outlook will remain bearish as long as the 0.8756 support turns into resistance (2021 bottom). A retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.
