Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) was hers stock The outlook has been revised by Oppenheimer, with analyst Jason Helfstein maintaining a bullish stance despite the stock’s recent volatility.
In this context, Helfstein reiterated an “outperform” rating on Netflix while lowering the price target to $120 from $135, an 11.1% decline. The new target still indicates an upside of ~23% from NFLX’s recent closing price of $97.
This revision was driven by lower estimates, primarily reflecting a weaker-than-expected impact from recent price increases in the United States.
Second-quarter revenue growth is now expected to slow to approximately 12% year over year, or approximately 14% on a constant currency basis, as Netflix transitions its business mix toward advertising and the timing of its advertising cycle.
Advertising plays a larger role, now driving about 60% of net additions while impacting revenues in the near term.
However, Helfstein expects the second half to be stronger, supported by improving ad market conditions and a more robust content slate.
Meanwhile, it maintained its assumptions for the full year of 2026, forecasting revenue growth of about 13%, driven by subscription growth of about 10% and about $3 billion in advertising revenue.
The valuation continues to be based on a 30x multiple of 2027 estimated earnings.
Near-term risks highlighted by the analyst include the timing and execution of the advertising cycle, especially around September, as well as potential pressure in the second quarter from developments at Warner Bros. Television. Discovery.
Wall Street is bullish on NFLX stock price
Overall, Wall Street sentiment toward Netflix remains solidly positive. Based on data from TipRanksThe stock carries a “Strong Buy” consensus rating from 41 analysts, including 31 Buy recommendations, 10 Hold, and no Sell ratings.
The average 12-month price target is $114.79, which implies an upside of approximately 18%, with estimates ranging from $150 to $94.
Netflix stock basics
Overall, Netflix stock has been volatile in 2026 despite strong fundamentals. For example, shares fell nearly 10% after first-quarter results as dovish guidance and leadership changes weighed on investor sentiment.
The company reported revenue of $12.25 billion, up 16% and slightly above expectations, while earnings per share nearly doubled to $1.23, helped by a $2.8 billion termination fee tied to the Warner Bros. deal. Discovery collapsed.
Paid memberships have surpassed 325 million, with strong uptake in the ad-supported tier, now accounting for about 60% of new signups. Ad revenue is growing rapidly and is on track to reach nearly $3 billion this year.
However, Netflix maintained its full-year forecast of 12% to 14% revenue growth and 31.5% operating margin, while second-quarter guidance was softer due to higher content costs.
Uncertainty also increased after Board Chairman Reed Hastings said he would not seek re-election to the board in June.
Meanwhile, the company continues to expand into advertising innovation, gaming, live events and international markets to maintain growth.
