One Wall Street analyst confirmed a cautious stance on… Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), maintaining a target price of $415 despite the recent volatility stock It will decrease by more than 20% in 2026.
In a research update on June 23, Stifel analyst Brad Reback reiterated his “Hold” rating on Microsoft shares and left his price target unchanged at $415. Based on Microsoft’s current stock price of $367, the target indicates a potential upside of approximately 13%.
The update comes as Microsoft announced a 20-year power agreement with Chevron tied to Project Kilby, an initiative designed to support the company’s growing energy needs as demand for AI-related data centers continues to rise.
According to the analyst note, Stifel views the project timeline conservatively. While first power deliveries are currently expected in 2028, the company believes this date represents the closest realistic scenario.
Rybak highlighted that the Kilby project is still in the pre-construction stage and is still awaiting the final investment decision, expected at the end of 2026.
The project must also progress through the planning, environmental review, and permitting processes before construction begins.
As a result, Stifel sees implementation and Organizational Risks that the timeline could extend beyond current expectations, prompting the company to maintain its neutral outlook on Microsoft shares.
Although Stifel remains on the sidelines with a “Hold” rating, broader Wall Street sentiment toward Microsoft remains positive.
Wall Street is bullish on MSFT shares
According to analyst consensus data from TipRanks36 Wall Street analysts are currently covering Microsoft stock, with 35 assigning “buy” ratings and one recommending a “hold.” No analysts currently rate the stock as a Sell.
The average forecast for Microsoft shares is $562.56, which implies an upside of approximately 53% from recent trading levels. Analysts’ targets range from a low of $412.67 to a high of $680.
While Stifel’s $415 target is among the most conservative forecasts on Wall Street, the company’s latest note suggests that uncertainty surrounding the timing and execution of Microsoft’s long-term energy infrastructure plans remains a key factor behind its cautious stance.
