The USD/JPY pair resumed its rise from 139.87 by breaching 160.71 last week. Initial bias remains to the upside this week at 161.94 high first. A strong breakout there would target the 100% forecast from 152.25 to 160.71 from 155.01 at 163.47 after that. On the downside, a break of the minor support at 160.58 will shift the intraday bias to neutral first.
In the bigger picture, for now, the corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) remains completed at 139.87. A rally from there is seen as a resumption of the long-term uptrend. This will remain the preferred case as long as the 55 W moving average remains (now at 155.17).
In the longer term picture, the uptrend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress and may be ready to resume. A strong break at 161.94 would target a 61.8% forecast of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term. The long-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the support at 139.87 holds, even in the event of a deep pullback.
