The USD/JPY pair is still trapped in a consolidation pattern from 162.83 level. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Another decline cannot be ruled out as consolidation continues, but the downside should be contained by a 38.2% retracement from 155.01 to 162.83 at 159.84. On the upside, a strong breakout of 162.83 will extend the larger uptrend to the projection level of 164.34.
In the bigger picture, the rise from 139.87 (2025 low) is another upside point in the long-term uptrend. The next target is a 61.8% forecast of 139.87 to 159.44 from 152.25 at 164.34. For now, the outlook will remain bullish as long as support at 155.01 holds, even in the event of a deep pullback.
In the longer term picture, the uptrend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress and may be ready to resume. A strong break at 161.94 would target a 61.8% forecast of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term. The long-term outlook will remain bullish as long as the support at 139.87 holds, even in the event of a deep pullback.
