US financial giant Fidelity analyzes what it would take to return Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies to a bull market.
In a new note to investors, Fidelity details Five historic catalysts that ended the last crypto winters since 2011.
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle tops the list. The last bottom was in November 2022, and a repeat could mean a bottom around November 2026.
“About every four years, the Bitcoin network is programmed to halve its mining rewards. This reduces the rate at which new Bitcoin enters circulation. If demand remains constant or increases while new supply decreases, the price of Bitcoin may rise as a result…
However, cryptocurrency investors may only want to use 4-year cycles as a form of big picture analysis, rather than a mechanical way to time a trade. The courses are not exactly 4 years long. Some were longer, others were shorter.
Regulatory developments rank second, with Fidelity noting that crypto-friendly rules have sparked bulls before.
Monetary policy shifts come in third, as federal interest rate cuts have boosted cryptocurrencies as a risky asset.
New use cases come in fourth place. NFTs and memecoins led the previous bull trend, now showing potential for real-world asset tokenization, stablecoins, and AI infrastructure.
“…The catalyst for a crypto bull market could also be something no one expects. Either way, widespread adoption could spark a new wave of investor excitement and attract new money into cryptocurrencies.”
Institutional adoption is last on the list, with Fidelity noting that the 2025 US Strategic Cryptocurrency Reserve helped push Bitcoin into the books.
Fidelity stresses that no one can predict when or whether a bull market will return, and says investors should only risk what they can afford to lose.
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