Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating around $77,600 as the price failed to break the nearest resistance area near $79,500. With the market remaining in this range, attention turns to the possibility that Bitcoin will finally change direction, which could bring an end to the current squeeze.
A big part of this discussion is the CME gap of about $82,000. In this context, CME gaps are treated as imbalances that can appear in futures pricing during traditional trading closing periods, such as weekends, while cryptocurrencies are continuously traded.
It’s down to $60,000 still on the table
Market analyst Rekt Fencer recently claimed on social media that Bitcoin will “100%” fill the $82,000 CME gap on the 12-hour chart. The prediction being highlighted is that over $10 billion of short positions could be liquidated when BTC closes the $82,000 level.
Even with such a powerful technical catalyst, so does the swordsman to caution The result may not remain purely bullish. He warned that this move could create a new bull trap first, followed by a sharp correction.
The broader outcome could be a decline towards the February lows of $60,000. If this scenario materializes, it would mean a ~26% retracement from this level, which could reignite bearish sentiment across the market.
However, there is another perspective that comes from institutional analysis. A new study by Coinbase Institutional takes a different view, challenging the idea that Bitcoin’s rebound over the past week was driven solely by leverage.
The report categorizes the rise as stronger than it appears, pointing to real demand rather than just borrowing and forced positioning.
What’s behind Bitcoin’s rise?
the study Lists Several indicators support his point. The rise in exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows is said to be near its highest levels this year, indicating stronger institutional demand. It also indicates accumulation by long-term bondholders, which is described as the concentration of supply in “strong hands.”
While short liquidations can help spur upward momentum, the report finds that similar pressures have occurred historically before – yet sustained rallies tend to persist when spot demand supports the move, not just leverage.
A key area highlighted by the institutional framework is approximately $80,000, which is described as the stand’s short-term cost basis. According to this interpretation, a recovery of around $80,000 could confirm that the market structure is strengthening.
If Bitcoin fails and rejects this level, it means that weakness may continue instead of forming a permanent uptrend.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
