The FIFA World Cup Round of 16 is scheduled to kick off on July 4, and soccer, or soccer as it is known in the United States, has become the biggest driver of activity on forecasting platforms, diverting attention from the political and macroeconomic markets that were originally built around it.
This is according to data from research firm CryptoRank, which shows that the tournament pushed expected market volumes from just $65 million on June 1 to a monthly peak of $5.6 billion on June 22.
World Cup drives record activity across forecasting platforms
According to CryptoRank data, throughout June, total trading volume across major forecasting venues rose rapidly, from the aforementioned $65 million on June 1 to $340 million on June 8, just days before the start of the World Cup. A week later, on June 15, the volume jumped to $2.2 billion, after 15 matches were played, including the United States’ historic 4-1 win over Paraguay in Los Angeles.
By the time 42 games had been played on June 22, trading on platforms had risen further, with CryptoRank reporting that volume reached a high of $5.6 billion before showing a slight decline seven days later, when around $5.4 billion in trades were recorded on June 29.
In a post on X dated July 2, the company He said Calci was responsible for much of June’s activity, with its dashboard at the time of writing showing open interest, or the total value of active positions yet to be settled, of $1.84 billion. Of this amount, approximately $1.45 billion was held in Calci while Polymarket held approximately $390 million.
Over the previous week, open interest remained relatively stable on Kalshi at around $1 billion, while on Polymarket, it peaked at $475 million on June 30, the day Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands crashed out of the competition in dramatic fashion.
BitMart He pointed out for similar trends on its own platform. With several research institutions predicting that total global trading volume in prediction markets could reach $10 billion, the cryptocurrency exchange said most of this traffic has so far been directed to centralized platforms like it, due to lower barriers to entry compared to on-chain prediction products that require private keys and gas fees as well as contract approvals that need several steps to complete.
As such, CEX reported that monthly forecast market volumes rose by 1,500% compared to May after the start of the World Cup. It also said that the number of active users increased 4.6 times, while completed orders rose about 9 times.
Furthermore, according to the exchange, nearly 44% of newly registered users made their first trade through its prediction markets, with football markets being the main attraction for newcomers before some of them expanded into cryptocurrency price predictions.
An industry with some baggage
Polymarket’s quieter World Cup month performance compared to Calcio came on the back of criticism on several fronts. For example, a Wall Street Journal (WSJ) investigation was published in June The alleged one That the platform was using staged winning bets in promotional videos.
There has also been a recent dispute Addresses where the user is accused Polymarket changes market rules associated with Strategy’s Bitcoin sale, raising questions about… How do these companies resolve disputed results?
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