Structural strength could push BTC to $85K soon

Bitcoin is trading at around $78k, and is steadily rising as a combination of improving technical structure and renewed geopolitical optimism leads to new buying.

The extension of the US-Iran ceasefire has provided a meaningful incentive for risk appetite, removing a major source of macro uncertainty that had been weighing on markets for weeks and giving buyers the fundamental backdrop they need to push through key resistance levels.

Bitcoin price analysis: daily chart

The daily chart tells a different story than a week ago. BTC finally broke through the down channel, crossed the 100-day EMA around $75k, and is now moving through the $75k-$80k resistance range, with the RSI also rising but not in the overbought zone yet. Most importantly, what makes this move stand out from previous attempts is that the price is not just indicating resistance and fading. The price moves through the supply zone with successive higher closes.

The next major test is at the $85K-$90K area, where the 200-day moving average and a large pool of supply converge. A weekly close above the psychological level of $80,000 would be a structural development of real significance, as it confirms that the prevailing corrective trend has broken down. On the downside, the previous channel boundaries and the 100-day EMA near $75,000 are now the first support levels that can be defended on any pullback.

BTC/USDT 4-hour chart

The ascending channel from the February lows does not produce a clear breakout to the upside. BTC is pushing through the upper boundary near $78K. In contrast to the mid-March attempt and last week’s failed breakout, this move has shown real follow-through and momentum, which is confirmed by the upward RSI.

The $74K-$76K area, which includes the previous upper channel boundary and the key horizontal level, is now the most important area to hold during any bounce on the 4-hour chart. A successful retest of that area followed by a bounce would be a textbook continuation setup and would add further conviction to the case that the $80K level, and perhaps a bearish order block between $82K and $84K, are the next important targets in the coming weeks.

Sentiment analysis

The Miner’s Positions Index (MPI) is currently below zero at the 7-day moving average level. It has rebounded from a green zone that has historically been characterized by periods of miner accumulation rather than distribution. Throughout the 2025 rally, the MPI repeatedly rose above zero as miners sold aggressively on price strength. This behavior consistently preceded local peaks. The current reading is the opposite, as miners are not rushing to sell at this rally.

The contrast with the behavior of the previous cycle is meaningful. When the price was trading between $110,000 and $125,000, the MPI was consistently high. Miners were unloading supply into demand. At $78,000, with the index approaching the most conservative reading in over a year, miners appear to be holding onto their coins rather than taking profits. This reduces one of the most consistent sources of selling pressure in the Bitcoin market, and in a context where exchange reserves are also at multi-year lows, the supply picture heading into a potential push towards $80,000 looks much cleaner than it did at equivalent price levels during the previous rally.