XRP is trading near the top of a month-long consolidation range, with the price remaining between roughly $1.35 and $1.45. As April draws to a close – there are only six days left until the month closes – will the price of XRP rise before the deadline, or will it decline and lead to a faster downward move?
Monthly breakout or collapse?
In a new technical update shared on social media, analyst Bull Winkle says the next major confirmation for XRP price will come from how it behaves on the monthly time frame. According to According to Winkle, the bulls need a monthly close above $1.90.
He positions this level as more than just an arbitrary resistance zone, describing it as a “hold” signal for the demand zone and also a retrieval of the 2021 resistance level, which now acts as support.
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If the XRP price can surpass $1.90 on the monthly close, Winkle says that will pave the way for retests at the top of the chart — specifically, opening the door to a $2.90 re-visit.
This scenario is bullish Involves significant recovery mathematics. If the price of XRP rises towards $1.90 before the April close from current trading levels of $1.43, it would represent a recovery of approximately 32%. In addition, there is a potential upside of 102% to the $2.90 area.
On the other hand, Winkle demonstrates what could be considered a clear collapse for the Bears. He says the most conclusive bearish signal would be a monthly close below $1.27.
In his view, this would open the way for a faster move towards $1, with the potential for an Elliott Wave C-style correction that could see the price of XRP fall in a broader range between $0.60 and $0.75. Which Bearish estimate It would be extreme: it could equate to a decline of approximately 58% from the current trading area.
What does the price of XRP need next?
While these price levels are the headline, Winkle also emphasized the momentum context using the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator.
He points out that in 47, Monthly Relative Strength Index It does not show divergence in either direction yet. For him, this means that the market has not reached the point where the next move is quite “high conviction” in the monthly setup.
Instead, the RSI needs to do something more decisive – either bounce strongly above 55 to confirm the bullish phase, or press below 40 with a path towards the 30 area, which it describes as a capitulation-type bottom.
This brings the focus to the immediate battlefield. Winkle’s summary of where the price of XRP stands is straightforward: The range from $1.27 to $1.43 is where the outcome is likely to be decided.
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Beyond the chart and RSI levels, Winkle pointed to a separate signal that he believes is actually strengthening the case for potential upside – something supply-side, rather than purely technical.
In another mailHe highlighted that “seven billion XRP just disappeared from exchanges,” claiming that this exchange outflow is important because when altcoins exist on exchanges, they represent a liquid sell-side supply that can be sold at any moment.
Once that supply leaves — whether to cold wallets, institutional custody, or long-term holding structures — he sees the immediate downward pressure on the XRP price could ease.
Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
