The virtual volume of prediction markets rose sharply in the second quarter of 2026 and reached $113.8 billion, up 48.7% from the previous quarter.
CoinGecko found that momentum accelerated in June, when monthly virtual volume rose to a record high of $50.7 billion, representing a 92% increase over the average monthly volume of $27.5 billion recorded over the previous five months.
Sports Driving June Serge
In its latest CoinGecko report attributed Rising to a busy calendar of major sporting events starting in late May, such as the Champions League Final, the Stanley Cup, the NBA Finals, the FIFA World Cup, and Wimbledon. Sports-driven activity was particularly evident on Polymarket, where sports-related contracts accounted for 81% of trading volume in June, compared to 40% in January.
Despite this increase in sports trading, Polymarket’s market share declined quarter-on-quarter from 35.8% to 30.2%. On the other hand, Calci was able to expand its lead after increasing its share from 42.4% in the first quarter to approximately 58.9% in the second quarter.
Meanwhile, Rothera, the Robinhood/Susquehanna International Group joint venture launched in May, quickly jumped to fourth place in June with a notional volume of $2.1 billion.
Wall Street and Big Tech are in the running
Prediction markets have gained momentum. Last month, Cboe Global Markets Fired Cboe expects a new prediction markets platform that will feature binary options contracts based on securities linked to the Mini-S&P 500 Index. The contracts, which trade under the symbols XSPBW and XSPBX, are already available through Interactive Brokers, while Charles Schwab is expected to add access in the coming months.
Cboe also said that more brokerages are likely to support the products over time. Contracts allow traders to take a “yes” or “no” position on whether the Mini-S&P 500 will settle at or above a specified level at expiration.
In addition, the New York Times I mentioned Meta is developing a standalone prediction markets app called Arena, where users predict real-world outcomes using points instead of real money. According to the report, the pilot project is a top priority for CEO Mark Zuckerberg and could eventually expand to include real money betting. This initiative follows previous forecasting app Meta, a points-based forecasting platform that launched in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic before being shut down in 2022.
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