DBulk prices have been on an upward trend for several months, although profits have remained mostly flat during this period. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Exclusive said that “the period from late February to late April 2026 presented a market narrative defined by divergence and resilience, most notably a structural repricing of dry bulk assets that moved well ahead of the freight rate dynamics that would traditionally warrant it.”
According to Xclusiv, “Cape Size absorbed the initial shock of the US-Iran military confrontation with a sharp but short-lived correction. From $24,211 per day on February 27, the Baltic C5TC price fell to a period low of $19,188 per day by March 10, as geopolitical uncertainty prompted owners and renters alike to adopt a cautious stance. What followed was not a long-term decline, but A systematic recovery accelerated sharply during April, with the index closing at $35,333 per day on April 24, representing an 86% gain from the March lows and a 47% increase in the open period. The average for the entire period stabilized at around $25,800 per day, a figure that significantly underestimates the directional momentum implied in recent weeks, with Kamsarmax presenting a completely different dynamic starting at $17,481 per day, and the Baltic Sea price. P5TC briefly peaked at $18,127 per day in early March before entering a easing phase that extended into late March, bottoming at $15,682 per day, and the subsequent recovery was gradual rather than strong, with prices closing at $17,638 per day, virtually flat versus the open period reflecting a full-period average of around $16,900 per day, with the April recovery concentrated in the last three weeks but lacking the conviction seen. In the closely tracked larger vessel classes after falling from $16,915 per day to a low near $15,190 per day by the end of March, the Baltic S11TC index made a strong and accelerating recovery, reaching $19,403 per day by 24 April, approaching levels last seen in early December 2023, with the index recording gains in each of the final sessions peaking at 15,002. USD per day on March 9, HS7TC steadily fell to USD 12,452 per day in early April, and although it partially retreated to USD 14,354 per day, it has not yet regained its February opening levels.
“The most analytically important dimension of this environment lies not in freight rates but in what has happened to asset values at equivalent earnings levels,” the shipbroker added. “All price references reflect average market levels for five-year-old Chinese-made ships. The current Capesize 5TC of $35,333/d juxtaposes two near-identical historical readings of $35,780/d in March 2024 and $35,527/d in December” by 2025, the shipping context is almost unchanged across all three dates. What has changed sharply is the cost of the acquisition: a ship sold for $57 million in March 2024, $64 million in December 2025, and today requires a 25% appreciation in asset value with no corresponding movement in daily earnings, which is not a story of the shipping market, it is a structural repricing of the underlying asset class, a story that reflects the deepening of owner confidence in the long term. The balance between supply and demand and the increasing competition for large and modern tonnages.
The Ultramax sector confirms this pattern: Five-year-old Ultramax has gone from $30 million in late 2023 to $37 million today at near-identical TCE levels, an increase of 23% over about two and a half years, a period in which earnings average about $15,000 per day. Kamsarmax and Handysize buck this trend, with asset prices remaining broadly flat to just below their 2024 peers at comparable earnings, suggesting that the structural premium has been concentrated at the larger end of the size spectrum, where supply scarcity and long-term demand exposure carry the greatest strategic weight.
Nikos Rousanoglou, Global Hellenic Shipping News
